Confirmed previous forecast
0.730636
Relative Brier Score
2
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0
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Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security
Most Active Topics:
Iran Nuclear Program
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Aug 17, 2025 03:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 17, 2025 to Jan 17, 2026
40%
(0%)
No
Jul 17, 2025 to Jan 17, 2026
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 18, 2025 01:31PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Apr 18, 2025 to Oct 18, 2025
40%
No
Apr 18, 2025 to Oct 18, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Some GeoPolit context - We should expect major moves in the nuclear Iran situation in the next 6 months
such a move can go two ways:
1 .military operation
2. Diplomatic agreement / sanctions
Both cases will impact the region stability, but will also solidify Israel's role as a significant power in the ME, but will also require cooperation from several Muslim countries that have similar interests to the Israeli and American ones.
The FOMO effect:
The above, along with the war that's been going on in the past 18-20 months, is a sign for other Muslim countries that it is also in their interests to be closer to Israel, from Lebanon to the new form of what is becoming of Syria.
encourage Muslim countries that has interests in the region to get closer to it.
some of these agreements are low hanging fruits for the current US admin, should it want to get some foreign diplomacy points on the PR side of things.
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Why might you be wrong?
As always in the ME, timing is everything, and the main reason for such agreements to miss is a stretched time-frame.
Should the Iranians buy more time, or any kind of unexpected event will throw the area into another turmoil, this can become a real hinder to meet the EO Oct time frame.
Such a risk is not a small one, as this is one of Iran's greater tools to apply "safe pressure" on the ME and in the world arena w/o paying real prices.
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