Yes as the winter approach, they might not take it directly from Russia and take white labelled from India
0.038061
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 52 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 22 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(+18%)
Yes
80%
(-18%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
In case they already got a deal mediated from Arab countries for oil
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2025 11:46AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2027
40%
(0%)
No
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2025 11:46AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
90%
(0%)
No
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
US would never allow it, Europe has no agency without going against US
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Right Wing in Europe win sure
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I see it happening other places outside of US first
Why might you be wrong?
If any Pharma company launches it first, yes