If US and UK are betting AGI to be the deciding factor to orient their political economy then it makes sense
0.101539
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 54 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 24 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It could be too early
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I see it happening other places outside of US first
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If any Pharma company launches it first, yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(+18%)
Yes
80%
(-18%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Yes as the winter approach, they might not take it directly from Russia and take white labelled from India
Files
Why might you be wrong?
In case they already got a deal mediated from Arab countries for oil
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2025 11:46AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2027
40%
(0%)
No
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Even if it is true, it won't be correct for Operational Security
Why might you be wrong?
It might work as a PR