RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?	0.104039
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?	-0.002668
Dec 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 28, 2024 and Dec 28, 2024)	-0.00016
Dec 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2024 and Dec 15, 2024)	-0.00446
Dec 10, 2024 10:46PM UTC	Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?	-0.151225
Dec 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 4, 2024 and Dec 4, 2024)	-0.022697
Dec 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 4, 2024 and Dec 4, 2024)	0.139597
Dec 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 2, 2024 and Dec 2, 2024)	0.0
Dec 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC	Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2024 and Dec 1, 2024)	0.13454
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC	Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?	0.242833
Nov 30, 2024 04:59AM UTC	Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?	0.024386
Nov 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2024 and Nov 28, 2024)	-0.000161
Nov 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 15, 2024 and Nov 15, 2024)	-0.003129
Nov 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2024 and Nov 6, 2024)	-0.000087
Nov 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2024 and Nov 6, 2024)	-0.000339
Nov 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 4, 2024 and Nov 4, 2024)	-0.016261
Nov 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 4, 2024 and Nov 4, 2024)	0.072494
Nov 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 2, 2024 and Nov 2, 2024)	0.0
Nov 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC	Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 1, 2024 and Nov 1, 2024)	0.118355
Oct 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 28, 2024 and Oct 28, 2024)	-0.000173

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