Confirmed previous forecast
-0.118957
Relative Brier Score
306
Forecasts
22
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 15 | 169 | 325 | 306 | 1276 |
| Comments | 2 | 75 | 233 | 218 | 649 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 18 | 30 | 31 | 106 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 15 | 24 | 22 | 312 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
32%
(0%)
Iván Cepeda
9%
(0%)
Sergio Fajardo
50%
(0%)
Abelardo de la Espriella
9%
(0%)
Other
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
0%
(0%)
17
100%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
76%
(0%)
Yes
24%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
62%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
(0%)
U.S. Entity
62%
(0%)
Non-U.S. Entity
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Ok, let's see.
Analysis
After checking crowd forecasts and new data, I've updated my view: PhD doctorates have stabilized at about 1,092 per year in 2023 and 2024 (no growth), unlike my earlier guess of 2–5% increases.
The crowd's strong bet on 5,000 to 5,499 total fits this flat trend (averaging 1,092 per year for aprox 5,460 overall).
Still, I see more uncertainty due to shifting demand in specific fields.....
Why might you be wrong?
One main reason:
A reason this forecast may be wrong: Lagged effects from post-COVID enrollment spikes in immunology could drive unexpected growth in graduations starting 2026 onward.