SandroAVL

Confirming the forecast. 

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1997305645612098032?t=TFzjl6wN8klo2KmHIImPSw&s=19

Quote : "Russia launched a major air attack on Ukrainian energy and transport infrastructure early this morning.

653 suicide drones and 51 missiles were fired on Ukrainian cities.

Ukraine shot down:

- 585 out of 653 drones

- 29 out of 34 cruise missiles

- 1 out of 14 ballistic missiles 

- 0 out of 3 hypersonic missiles (Kinzhal)

In the Kyiv region, the Fastiv railway station and energy infrastructure were hit.

In Bila Tserkva, a power plant was hit.

In the Lviv region, a power plant was attacked.

Russia also hit energy infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava and Chernihiv regions." End of quote 

Confirming last forecast 

Confirming last forecast 

Been thinking about this one all day 

I’m aligning with the latest evidence and lowering to 2 %.

NK leader is pragmatic. 

Nothing is convincing me that in the given timeframe, the resolution will be positive. 

Also, as before: 

Ending this season knowing that the other two questions scoring ~0 anyway, final score after Jan 1st 2026  will land around −1.024 to −1.026 instead of −1.039 — easily keeping me #1 with room to spare.😐☝️

Final adjustment 

Crowd median has drifted from 1 % → 2 % in the last 72 hours on fresh Maxar imagery and NK News reporting of tunnel reclamation.

My previous 3 % was anchored to the quiet 2024–2025 period; new evidence (steam plumes, vehicle tracks, justifies a further upward adjustment to 8 % while remaining inside the sharp-forecaster range.