Adjusting downward significantly to account for the limited time remaining and the pressure from Trump to force a ceasefire that favors Russia (meaning less willingness for the US to approve transfer of US-supplied systems via third parties).
0.0
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 129 | 1 | 129 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 138 | 1 | 138 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 31 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-25%)
Yes
90%
(+25%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Europe may break out to support Ukraine to demonstrate more influence in Ukraine
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 3, 2026 10:22PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(-1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(+1%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Lack of consensus on the latest peace proposal makes it extremely unlikely that an agreement will "go into effect" this year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A combination of a massive push from the US (and Russia) against the will of Ukraine and Europe before the end of the year to claim a 2025 victory
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(-16%)
Yes
65%
(+16%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating for passage of time. I still think the criteria can be met by the commitment to provide the capability but erring more towards crowd forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the threshold is just a commitment then it will be more likely the resolution will be YES
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reduced time and previous imports make it unlikely that December will surge enough to meet threshold
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Peace deal and lifting of sanctions
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027
95%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
China continues to press closer to Taiwan and the lack of any substantive consequence for doing so will continue to motivate them to push closer, testing Taiwan reactions and defenses and further complicating Taiwanese and US indications and warnings for a potential future invasion.
Why might you be wrong?
China may leverage Trump's personality and use Taiwan as a bargaining chip with US trade.