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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 8 | 127 | 127 | 127 |
| Comments | 3 | 6 | 136 | 136 | 136 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 5 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(-1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(+1%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Lack of consensus on the latest peace proposal makes it extremely unlikely that an agreement will "go into effect" this year.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A combination of a massive push from the US (and Russia) against the will of Ukraine and Europe before the end of the year to claim a 2025 victory
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(-16%)
Yes
65%
(+16%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating for passage of time. I still think the criteria can be met by the commitment to provide the capability but erring more towards crowd forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the threshold is just a commitment then it will be more likely the resolution will be YES
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reduced time and previous imports make it unlikely that December will surge enough to meet threshold
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Peace deal and lifting of sanctions
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027
95%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Decreasing likelihood of meeting the threshold. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-oil-fuel-export-revenues-continued-slide-october-iea-says-2025-11-13/
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected adjustments or spikes in demand
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
51%
(-14%)
Yes
49%
(+14%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Still potential to meet the criteria before the end of the window and still strong motivation for Euro countries to support UKR
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is much less time to make the commitments required and other forecasters provide good analysis on why "providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes" may not be the best Euro approach
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Excellent outside view from @dawnpatrol and @tonio provide varying evidence that indicate it is less likely that the Q4 total will exceed the 10,833 CM needed to reach the resolution amount. Given that I have forecast elsewhere that the war is likely to continue through the end of the year and the belief that will continue the pressure on the EU to decrease imports I am heavily favoring NO.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Multiple factors outlined by @dawnpatrol and @tonio for why I could be wrong and the close values just below the threshold. I'll reevaluate after the monthly data gets published.
Files