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New Prediction
Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The intra‑regional share would need to rise by at least about 2.8 percentage points in 2025 or 2026 to meet the 24% threshold, which is a larger jump than typical year‑to‑year movements in regional intra‑trade shares reported by UNCTAD.
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Why might you be wrong?
An unexpected “Yes” argument is that geopolitical and logistics shocks could force a sharp pivot toward intra‑regional trade, mechanically pushing the intra‑regional share over 24% even without deep structural integration. Other dynamics such as nearshoring could affect the share of exports staying within the region, altering the intra=group percentage.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 20, 2025 to May 20, 2027
96%
(0%)
No
Nov 20, 2025 to May 20, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 27, 2026 03:46PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-2%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2027
96%
(+2%)
No
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering due to time passed.
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Why might you be wrong?
The same reasons.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Argentina
7%
(-21%)
Bolivia
3%
(0%)
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
As October nears, with a change in government pending and the economy in such disarray, it appears the problems will be passed to incoming leader.
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Why might you be wrong?
The economic landscape is pretty dire, so there is always a chance things could change for the worse, even in this tight timeframe.
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