Confirmed previous forecast
-0.035999
Relative Brier Score
13
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 15 | 13 | 78 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 20, 2025 to May 20, 2027
96%
(0%)
No
Nov 20, 2025 to May 20, 2027
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-2%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2027
96%
(+2%)
No
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering due to time passed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The same reasons.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Argentina
7%
(-21%)
Bolivia
3%
(0%)
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
As October nears, with a change in government pending and the economy in such disarray, it appears the problems will be passed to incoming leader.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The economic landscape is pretty dire, so there is always a chance things could change for the worse, even in this tight timeframe.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2025 07:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(-19%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2027
94%
(+19%)
No
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
With the passing of time, it appears less likely that Russia will undertake activities to cause kinetic damage.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
For any number of reasons, Russia could escalate their attempts at sabotage, rather than focusing primarily on information gathering.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Less than or equal to 1349
29%
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
52%
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
12%
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
3%
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
With 1,288 cases as of July 8, 2025, and a current rate closer to 5–10 new cases per day nationally, a projection to 1,500–1,600 total cases by the end of summer is reasonable if the current trend holds.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If new clusters emerge, especially in areas with low immunization rates, the case count could rise rapidly.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-12%)
Argentina
28%
(+8%)
Bolivia
3%
(-7%)
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
Argentina: Argentina is experiencing a notable economic turnaround, with inflation falling and growth accelerating,
Bolivia: Bolivia faces an acute economic and currency crisis, with little policy response and mounting political uncertainty.
Equador: Ecuador is stabilizing with IMF support and reforms,
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Argentina:Political risks remain.
Bolivia: Immediate fiscal and monetary discipline,Emergency external financing
Rapid progress on lithium and other resource projects,
Attracting private investment,
Political consensus for difficult reforms.
Equador: Faces ongoing security, fiscal, and political challenges.
Files