Confirmed previous forecast
-0.045538
Relative Brier Score
18
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 79 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 25 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 20, 2025 to May 20, 2027
96%
(0%)
No
Nov 20, 2025 to May 20, 2027
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-2%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2027
96%
(+2%)
No
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering due to time passed.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The same reasons.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Argentina
7%
(-21%)
Bolivia
3%
(0%)
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
As October nears, with a change in government pending and the economy in such disarray, it appears the problems will be passed to incoming leader.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The economic landscape is pretty dire, so there is always a chance things could change for the worse, even in this tight timeframe.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 30, 2025 07:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(-19%)
Yes
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2027
94%
(+19%)
No
Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
With the passing of time, it appears less likely that Russia will undertake activities to cause kinetic damage.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
For any number of reasons, Russia could escalate their attempts at sabotage, rather than focusing primarily on information gathering.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The intra‑regional share would need to rise by at least about 2.8 percentage points in 2025 or 2026 to meet the 24% threshold, which is a larger jump than typical year‑to‑year movements in regional intra‑trade shares reported by UNCTAD.
Why might you be wrong?
An unexpected “Yes” argument is that geopolitical and logistics shocks could force a sharp pivot toward intra‑regional trade, mechanically pushing the intra‑regional share over 24% even without deep structural integration. Other dynamics such as nearshoring could affect the share of exports staying within the region, altering the intra=group percentage.
https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-december-2025-global-trade-poised-record-breaking-2025-flows