Lowering for a couple of reasons, drawing primarily from Microsoft's Digital Defense Report from October 2025.
1. While Russian threat actors have expanded cyber operations, with more targets outside Ukraine, the attacks appear to mostly be cyber espionage -- information gathering rather than disruption. Also from the report: "...we have observed a modest increase in Russian actors targeting smaller businesses in countries supporting Ukraine. This is an expansion of these actors’ scope, which previously had been mostly limited to conventional political targets like government agencies."
2. Shifting operational burden to a network of non-state actors, which *may* make attribution more complicated. Per the Microsoft report, "These actors appear to have reduced their efforts to develop bespoke operations in favor of leveraging the cybercriminal ecosystem...This shift in TTPs could make it more difficult for network defenders to attribute simple operations to sophisticated threat actors and recognize the implications of a breach."
See the report here: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/corporate-responsibility/cybersecurity/microsoft-digital-defense-report-2025/
Why do you think you're right?
China isn't ready for an invasion/long-term blockade yet, but is building towards it.
This scenario from a Time article is compelling, with a limited quarantine scenario setting the stage for a blockade, followed by an invasion if Taiwan does not accede.
"A quarantine could begin by Beijing announcing “enhanced customs inspection rules” that require all cargo and tanker vessels to file advance paperwork with Chinese authorities. Noncompliant ships would be subject to on-site inspections, questioning, and possible detention.
The quarantine could target all Taiwan’s ports or even concentrate on just one, such as Taiwan’s biggest trade hub of Kaohsiung in the island’s south, which today handles around half of all goods. In this scenario, 600-odd Chinese coast guard vessels would take the lead, alongside the 3,000 or so armed fishing boats that form China’s maritime militia, although backed up by naval strike groups lurking close by. Chinese-flagged shipping vessels would universally comply and be allowed into Taiwanese ports, presenting a quandary to foreign ships whether to follow suit. If China’s authority is respected, it will have established a “new normal” regarding its dominion. "
https://time.com/7327558/taiwan-china-independence-military-war-invasion/
China is also building up its gold reserves and crude oil reserves, but it is difficult to chalk this up to war-readiness factors only, given current trade tensions between the US and China.
"State oil companies including Sinopec and CNOOC will add at least 169 million barrels of storage across 11 sites during 2025 and 2026"
and:
"Gold Reserves in China increased to 2298.53 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2025"
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-accelerates-oil-reserve-site-build-amid-stockpiling-drive-2025-10-07/
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gold-reserves
Finally, Xi is clearing house with his anti-corruption measures. A number of "Chinese defense and contracting bigwigs got the boot", including nine top generals. Beijing is unlikely to undertake a complex military campaign until there is full confidence in the military and defense procurement pipelines.
https://www.axios.com/2025/10/29/taiwan-china-trump-alexander-yui
Why might you be wrong?