Forecasted Questions
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2025 04:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 29, 2025 04:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S. | 89% | 0% | +89% | -1% |
| More than €0 but less than €10 billion | 11% | 1% | +10% | -5% |
| At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion | 0% | 5% | -5% | -6% |
| At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion | 0% | 51% | -51% | +6% |
| €30 billion or more | 0% | 43% | -43% | +6% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2025 04:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 29, 2025 04:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 1% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 99% | -4% | +0% |
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2025 04:32PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 29, 2025 04:32PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 19% | +31% | -36% |
| No | 50% | 81% | -31% | +36% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2025 04:32PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 29, 2025 04:32PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 1% | +14% | +0% |
| No | 85% | 99% | -14% | +0% |
What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2025 04:32PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 29, 2025 04:32PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 62% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 62% but less than 66% | 10% | 0% | +10% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 66% but less than 70% | 78% | 4% | +74% | -18% |
| More than or equal to 70% but less than 74% | 12% | 96% | -84% | +18% |
| More than or equal to 74% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2025 04:39PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 29, 2025 04:39PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 10% | +20% | -31% |
| No | 70% | 90% | -20% | +31% |
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2025 04:53PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 29, 2025 04:53PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 1% | +3% | +1% |
| No | 96% | 99% | -3% | -1% |