RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will any branch of the U.S. military have hypersonic weapons operationally deployed with field units, aboard naval vessels, or on aircraft by 30 April 2026?

Question Ends:
May 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 28, 2025 04:10PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	44%	-14%	-29%
No	70%	56%	+14%	+29%

Will the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) attack a commercial shipping vessel on the Red Sea between 19 December 2025 and 31 July 2026, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 28, 2025 04:11PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	75%	-5%	+7%
No	30%	25%	+5%	-7%

Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution related to the conflict in Sudan by 1 May 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 28, 2025 04:13PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	58%	-18%	-20%
No	60%	42%	+18%	+20%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 28, 2025 04:14PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	3%	+2%	+0%
No	95%	97%	-2%	+0%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 28, 2025 04:16PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	15%	-5%	-1%
No	90%	85%	+5%	+1%

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 28, 2025 04:18PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	83%	-13%	-1%
No	30%	17%	+13%	+1%

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(10 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 28, 2025 04:21PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
19	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
18	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
17	18%	0%	+18%	+0%
16 or fewer	82%	100%	-18%	+1%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 28, 2025 04:27PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	2%	+2%	-1%
No	96%	98%	-2%	+1%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 28, 2025 04:30PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	48%	-28%	+2%
No	80%	52%	+28%	-2%

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 28, 2025 04:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	39%	-19%	+0%
No	80%	61%	+19%	+0%

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