Forecasted Questions
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Jan 29, 2026 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 29% | 15% | +14% | +1% |
| No | 71% | 85% | -14% | -1% |
Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Jan 29, 2026 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 78% | 49% | +29% | -1% |
| No | 22% | 51% | -29% | +1% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Jan 29, 2026 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | 7% | +68% | +0% |
| No | 25% | 93% | -68% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Jan 29, 2026 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 92% | 15% | +77% | +0% |
| No | 8% | 85% | -77% | +0% |
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Jan 29, 2026 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 4% | +86% | +0% |
| No | 10% | 96% | -86% | +0% |
Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Jan 29, 2026 10:32PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 1% | +29% | +0% |
| No | 70% | 99% | -29% | +0% |
Will Delcy Rodríguez be President of Venezuela on 30 April 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 30, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Apr 30, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2026 10:37PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Jan 29, 2026 10:37PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 88% | +12% | -9% |
| No | 0% | 12% | -12% | +9% |