Vinicio

Current reporting from Reuters, AP, and Al Jazeera shows Delcy Rodríguez firmly installed as acting president with full backing of the Supreme Tribunal and the armed forces. The opposition lacks immediate institutional and military capacity to assume power. The U.S. is pragmatically cooperating with her, reinforcing short-term political stability. No concrete electoral timetable or transition mechanism has been implemented so far. Therefore, continuity of her acting presidency through 30 April 2026 is the most probable outcome.

Recognition patterns among G20 members have been relatively stable for years. Most Western G20 states that have not recognized Palestine—such as the U.S., U.K., Japan, Germany, France, and Italy—are unlikely to shift positions abruptly due to diplomatic alignment with the U.S. and concerns about the peace-process framework. Meanwhile, countries that were already inclined to recognize Palestine—such as South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Russia, China, Indonesia, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia—have largely done so. Given the geopolitical constraints and the slow pace of policy change among remaining holdouts, large shifts in recognition before early 2026 are improbable.