Vinicio

Recognition patterns among G20 members have been relatively stable for years. Most Western G20 states that have not recognized Palestine—such as the U.S., U.K., Japan, Germany, France, and Italy—are unlikely to shift positions abruptly due to diplomatic alignment with the U.S. and concerns about the peace-process framework. Meanwhile, countries that were already inclined to recognize Palestine—such as South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Russia, China, Indonesia, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia—have largely done so. Given the geopolitical constraints and the slow pace of policy change among remaining holdouts, large shifts in recognition before early 2026 are improbable.