94th
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YJAung

Brigitte de Graaf
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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? -0.000056
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? -0.000229
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024? -0.000255
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador? -0.007368
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia? -0.000468
Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela? -0.000031
Jun 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between May 15, 2024 and Jun 15, 2024) -0.018268
Jun 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 6, 2024 and Jun 6, 2024) 0.100355
Jun 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 6, 2024 and Jun 6, 2024) 0.007294
Jun 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2024 and Jun 2, 2024) 0.0
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.002436
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.048302
May 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 15, 2024 and May 15, 2024) -0.0175
May 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 6, 2024 and May 6, 2024) 0.02465
May 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 6, 2024 and May 6, 2024) 0.01372
May 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2024 and May 2, 2024) 0.0
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.020577
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024? 0.105939
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? -0.000194
Apr 24, 2024 01:10AM UTC Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024? -0.000025
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