RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 07:07AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 07:24AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than €0 but less than €10 billion	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion	20%	5%	+15%	+0%
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion	70%	51%	+19%	+2%
€30 billion or more	10%	43%	-33%	-1%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 01, 2025 07:31AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	-2%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+2%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 09:56PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	19%	-9%	-14%
No	90%	81%	+9%	+14%

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2025 10:11PM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	5%	+5%	-4%
No	90%	95%	-5%	+4%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 23, 2025 11:12PM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	3%	4%	-1%	-1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 24, 2025 04:44PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	4%	-3%	+2%
No	99%	96%	+3%	-2%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:29PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2027	Feb 28, 2026	6%	+8%	+0%
No	86%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2027	Feb 28, 2026	94%	-8%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:29PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
No	99%	97%	+2%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:29PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	17%	-7%	+0%
No	90%	83%	+7%	+0%

YJAung

Brigitte de Graaf

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