RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 15, 2026 08:16AM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	-1%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+1%

Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution related to the conflict in Sudan by 1 May 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 17, 2026 02:12PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	45%	+15%	-16%
No	40%	55%	-15%	+16%

Will Hezbollah and its March 8 coalition allies win a majority of seats in the 2026 Lebanese Parliamentary elections?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 17, 2026 02:54PM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	26%	-1%	-5%
No	75%	74%	+1%	+5%

Will China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 equal or exceed 5.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 25, 2026 12:59PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	29%	+1%	-5%
No	70%	71%	-1%	+5%

Will Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) take control of Bamako, Mali by 1 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 02, 2026 03:59AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 25, 2026 01:33PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	5%	-3%	-1%
No	98%	95%	+3%	+1%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 08:19PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	4%	-1%	+0%
No	97%	96%	+1%	+0%

Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2026 08:45PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	17%	-12%	-2%
No	95%	83%	+12%	+2%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 08:37PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 08:37PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	3%	-2%	0%
No	99%	97%	+2%	0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 08:38PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	16%	-6%	+0%
No	90%	84%	+6%	+0%

YJAung

Brigitte de Graaf

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