Forecasted Questions
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:39PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 08:39PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 9% | -3% | -4% |
| No | 94% | 91% | +3% | +4% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:40PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 08:40PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:57PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 08:57PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 17 | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| 16 or fewer | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 09:01PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 09:01PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 30, 2025 09:18PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 3% | +7% | -1% |
| No | 90% | 97% | -7% | +1% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 07, 2025 04:00PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Dec 07, 2025 04:00PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 07, 2025 04:01PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Dec 07, 2025 04:01PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S. | 0% | 1% | -1% | +1% |
| More than €0 but less than €10 billion | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion | 20% | 6% | +14% | +1% |
| At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion | 70% | 49% | +21% | -2% |
| €30 billion or more | 10% | 43% | -33% | +0% |
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 07, 2025 04:02PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Dec 07, 2025 04:02PM UTC
(8 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 98% | +0% | +0% |