RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	98%	+1%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	1%	+0%	+1%
No	99%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	99%	+0%	-1%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026	Dec 30, 2025	99%	+1%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	7%	-5%	+0%
No	98%	93%	+5%	+0%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Not before 2026	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:30PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 62%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%	0%	0%	+0%	0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%	2%	4%	-2%	-1%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%	98%	96%	+2%	+1%
More than or equal to 74%	0%	0%	+0%	0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:31PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 08:31PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	3%	3%	+1%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	87%	96%	-9%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	10%	2%	+8%	0%

YJAung

Brigitte de Graaf

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