RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 08:38PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	7%	-5%	+0%
No	98%	93%	+5%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 08:38PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	87%	96%	-9%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	10%	2%	+8%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 08:38PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	0%
Georgia	4%	3%	+1%	0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 08:50PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	2%	-1%	0%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 08:53PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

Will any branch of the U.S. military have hypersonic weapons operationally deployed with field units, aboard naval vessels, or on aircraft by 30 April 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 09:01PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	35%	35%	+0%	+0%
No	65%	65%	+0%	+0%

Will Hezbollah and/or Amal Movement candidates maintain control of all Shia-majority seats in the 2026 Lebanese Parliament?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 09:03PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	75%	74%	+1%	+2%
No	25%	26%	-1%	-2%

Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 09:03PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Iván Cepeda	50%	37%	+13%	+1%
Sergio Fajardo	17%	8%	+9%	+0%
Abelardo de la Espriella	30%	43%	-13%	-1%
Other	3%	12%	-9%	-1%

Will Delcy Rodríguez be President of Venezuela on 30 April 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 30, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 09:16PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	95%	89%	+6%	+1%
No	5%	11%	-6%	-1%

Will North Korea conduct a missile test between 1 February 2026 and 31 March 2026, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2026 09:29PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	90%	93%	-3%	+3%
No	10%	7%	+3%	-3%

YJAung

Brigitte de Graaf

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