RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Mar 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 4, 2025 and Mar 4, 2025)	-0.003879
Mar 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2025 and Mar 2, 2025)	-0.0002
Feb 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 28, 2025 and Feb 28, 2025)	0.0
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC	What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?	-0.049901
Feb 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 4, 2025 and Feb 4, 2025)	-0.000813
Feb 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 4, 2025 and Feb 4, 2025)	0.000435
Feb 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2025 and Feb 2, 2025)	-0.0002
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC	Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?	-0.040192
Jan 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 28, 2024 and Jan 28, 2025)	0.0
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC	In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)	-0.067915
Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?	0.00534
Jan 09, 2025 02:00PM UTC	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Jan 9, 2025)	0.10073
Jan 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025)	-0.011835
Jan 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025)	0.0
Jan 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 2, 2024 and Jan 2, 2025)	-0.000019
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?	-0.000117
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	0.013418
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?	-0.008002
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?	-0.000807
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?	-0.000702

YJAung

Brigitte de Graaf

About: