Confirmed previous forecast
0.064796
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 66 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 26 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
So far there is no indicator of it.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(+25%)
Yes
70%
(-25%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
It is more likely than I predicted previously. Given the current price of 3.278 and the seasonability trend, it is likely to reach 3.600 for july.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m
Files
Why might you be wrong?
now it is already the end of june.
Files
the current price of 3.278
This was the price for May. Please notice that the most "current" price is given at a weekly granularity, and it is at 3.338 as of June 23 (the update for June 30 is expected in a couple of days): https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
I slightly adjusted my prediction to align with the crowd.