It verges on inconceivable that we'd see >= 2 cat 3+ hurricanes over the next eleven days both form and strike CONUS without dissipating to level 2 or below.
-0.02916
Relative Brier Score
46
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 46 | 46 | 46 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 58 | 58 | 58 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-1%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I haven't researched data on hurricane formation beyond the last thirty years or so, so it's possible I'm overstating the strength of the base rate (eg., no 11-day windows within which such 3+ hurricanes are formed and strike in that period).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating for time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Hard to imagine this skyrocketing
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+2%)
Less than or equal to 1
1%
(-2%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Time decay. More substantively, I'm unsure whether there's ever been a time when two major hurricanes formed and made CONUS landfall within the last two weeks of September. It has not happened, at minimum, in the last eleven years, though Irma and Harvey in 2017 were only about three weeks apart.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As mentioned, Irma and Harvey in 2017 were only about three weeks apart, so there's some precedent for quick turnarounds in major hurricane landfalls.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-6%)
Yes
98%
(+6%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
updating for time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
same reasons hold
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(+3%)
Less than or equal to 1
3%
(-3%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Updating for time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Same reasons hold
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
94%
(+6%)
Less than or equal to 1
6%
(-6%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting for passage of time. There are no years in the past ten when two or more Cat 3-5 hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. in September. There is only one year (2017) when two made landfall in the U.S. at all between June 1-Sept 30, one of which occurred in late August, the other in early September.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There were only two weeks or so between when two cat 3-5 hurricanes made landfall on CONUS in 2017; that could plausibly happen in mid september and late september, still, but it seems very unlikely.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Time decay; no signs of a major policy announcement of this kind in the offing.
Why might you be wrong?