224th
Accuracy Rank

aggaray

About:
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 5 177 177 1258
Comments 0 2 79 79 568
Questions Forecasted 0 5 48 48 230
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 60
 Definitions
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 14th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
Estonia
3% (0%)
Latvia
3% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (-1%)
Yes
Dec 26, 2025 to Jun 26, 2026
99% (+1%)
No
Dec 26, 2025 to Jun 26, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Updating my forecast considering there are no changes in the information provided by News from the region

Files
Why might you be wrong?

A sudden change in the geopolitical trend in the area

Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 26, 2025 to Jun 26, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Dec 26, 2025 to Jun 26, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
aggaray
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0% (0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
5% (0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
95% (0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
aggaray
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
aggaray
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
75% (0%)
Less than 30 days
15% (-10%)
30 days
5% (+5%)
31-60 days
5% (+5%)
61-90 days
0% (0%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?

Updating my forecast taking into consideration latest news

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Considering that new agreements from Third Parties can help to make the cease fire to last longer than predicted

Files
New Badge
aggaray
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Nov 2025

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
aggaray
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Nov 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Not likely by mid 2026 at least with what we know already

Files
Why might you be wrong?

As mentioned in other questions, a change in geopolitical landscape could motivate a change in this result

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

At least before mid 2026, not likely so far

Files
Why might you be wrong?

A change in geopolitical landscape could ignite a change in my prediction

Files
Files
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