For this question, despite the current consensus, i do believe there will be an approval of this kind of new devices. There are big companies that are making a push for this
-0.508967
Relative Brier Score
22
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 271 | 22 | 1103 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 51 | 11 | 500 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 58 | 21 | 203 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 60 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Feb 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Jan 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If i am wrong, it could be slightly in the date of the release. I still believe would be soon
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Very unlikely considering the procedures and how close is 2030
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I think I could be wrong maybe partially if an approval process is partially initiated as a solution
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I am giving a 30% to a Yes in this question considering Neurogenerative diseases are increasing in amount
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Industry could consider that is not a good idea promote competition so they could make lobby to stop this kind of initiatives
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Even considering the methodology suggested to design new drugs is relatively novel, there are many procedures that will need to be changed. For this reason, i give a low probability to a Yes in this question
Files
Why might you be wrong?
AI and ML came to stay. For this reason, there are many procedures that will need to be updated to face this new Era
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Updating my forecast always taking into consideration that Egypt is a key point of interest in the Region and it is unlikely that something like that will happen
Why might you be wrong?
I could be wrong if suddenly there could be new interests in the Region where an unstable environment could be of more interest