158th
Accuracy Rank

aggaray

About:

I am Electrical Engineer with a Master in Computer Science and one in Economics and Finances. PM4R Professional, ISO 9001:2015 Lead Auditor, LEGO MINDSTORM EV3 Robots Specialist, IEEE Senior Member and active volunteer in many organizations. I work with the Monitoring of the National SDG Agenda and I am an active promoter of STEM Careers, More participation of Women in Engineering, Data Science and the role that Technology and Tech Professionals have in the Sustainable Development of our Communities and the design and implementation of Public Policies.
I do believe data can be and most be used for the Sustainable Development of our Communities and projects like FORETELL should be supported, promoted and replicated as much as possible in US and around the World.

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All Time Stats

8.396406

Relative Brier Score

1253

Forecasts

60

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 11 20 197 172 1253
Comments 4 13 91 77 566
Questions Forecasted 11 20 65 48 230
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 0 60
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security, Emerging Technology, Iran: Threats & Influence, Artificial Intelligence, Microelectronic Technologies

Most Active Topics:
Microelectronics, Iran Nuclear Program, Manufacturing, Iran-VNSAs, semiconductors

New Badge
aggaray earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Nov 2025

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Badge
aggaray earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Nov 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Not likely by mid 2026 at least with what we know already

Files
Why might you be wrong?

As mentioned in other questions, a change in geopolitical landscape could motivate a change in this result

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

At least before mid 2026, not likely so far

Files
Why might you be wrong?

A change in geopolitical landscape could ignite a change in my prediction

Files
New Prediction
What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?
aggaray made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10% (+10%)
Less than $21.0 billion
60% (+60%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
30% (+10%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
0% (-60%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
0% (-20%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?

Updating my forecast taking into considerations some trends related to  budget assignment

Files
Why might you be wrong?
A rebalance in strategic importance of the Space Program
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
aggaray made their 18th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Nov 30, 2025 to May 30, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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