137th
Accuracy Rank

alter_hugo

Hugo
About:

Feel free to contact me at [email protected].

I started forecasting a year ago after reading Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. I also participate in Good Judgement Open - find me at @alter_hugo.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025) 0.006619
Jan 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 2, 2024 and Jan 2, 2025) -0.000019
Jan 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 1, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.083584
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA? 0.002805
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? -0.009062
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA? -0.005199
Dec 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 28, 2024 and Dec 28, 2024) -0.0001
Dec 10, 2024 10:46PM UTC Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026? 0.068569
Dec 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 4, 2024 and Dec 4, 2024) 0.01027
Dec 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 2, 2024 and Dec 2, 2024) 0.0
Dec 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2024 and Dec 1, 2024) -0.02734
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? -0.317649
Nov 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2024 and Nov 28, 2024) -0.000194
Nov 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2024 and Nov 6, 2024) -0.000116
Nov 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2024 and Nov 6, 2024) -0.00051
Nov 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 4, 2024 and Nov 4, 2024) 0.005384
Nov 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 2, 2024 and Nov 2, 2024) 0.0
Nov 01, 2024 07:00PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 1, 2024 and Nov 1, 2024) 0.008461
Oct 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 28, 2024 and Oct 28, 2024) -0.0002
Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024) -0.143196
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