Updating based on latest readings
-0.011711
Relative Brier Score
27
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 4 | 29 | 27 | 327 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 24 | 24 | 127 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 57 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 70 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
8%
(-39%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
90%
(+39%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
47%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
51%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-5%)
Yes
99%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Matching the crowd. Not looking likely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I can see there being impetus for this given the increased American isolationism (maybe? who knows? seems to change on a whim). But the timeline is relatively short to work out a serious pact and there are so many historical rivalries within the region.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A shared sense of vulnerability could drive countries to make it happen. Also, maybe something gets formed as part of the end of the war in Gaza?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(-64%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
99%
(+68%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
1%
(-2%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Update since we already passed the bucket I was heavily in :(
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Data revisions
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The timeline here is reasonably long, but I'm still starting out pretty low. This seems like it'd be a pretty major provocation and is likely only attainable by major powers. Lots of incentives to not do this - NATO Article 5, creating cascading problems with space junk, etc.
The two most likely scenarios that come to mind are around Taiwan or Starlink/Ukraine.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Probably a scenario or pair of countries that I'm not immediately thinking about.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I think the timeline for this is just too short. I didn't see anything about companies already seeking approval and typical approval for a de novo review is apparently 9-18 months.
Why might you be wrong?
Obviously lots of interest and momentum behind LLM's broadly.