Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 151 | 151 | 151 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 61 | 61 | 61 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 11, 2026 06:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 11, 2025 to Jun 11, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 11, 2025 to Jun 11, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 11, 2025 to Jun 11, 2027
95%
(0%)
No
Dec 11, 2025 to Jun 11, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Highly unlikely. According to Reuters, both Thailand and Cambodia have begun to withdraw heavy weapons as part of steps to de-escalate the tensions. Both leaders from each country signed an elaborate ceasefire deal with President Trump in attendance.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is still tension, there is animosity. A ceasefire is a great step forward but not a guaranteed shots will not be fired and lives not lost.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
9%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
30%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
61%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I lost track of the question but ABC and Reuters report numbers exceeding the 20. Several military and several civilian with hundreds injured. What is the extent of the injuries, could more pass from wounds? Either way, no end in sight.
Why might you be wrong?
The current administration is due to meet or call soon. Could that interaction create a cease fire or end?