Confirmed previous forecast
0.55823
Relative Brier Score
145
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 145 | 145 | 145 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Quickfire Forecasts,
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Africa,
Cybersecurity,
MENA
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
9%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
30%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
61%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 8, 2025 03:22PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 8, 2025 to Apr 8, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 8, 2025 to Apr 8, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 8, 2025 to Apr 8, 2027
95%
(0%)
No
Oct 8, 2025 to Apr 8, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Highly unlikely. According to Reuters, both Thailand and Cambodia have begun to withdraw heavy weapons as part of steps to de-escalate the tensions. Both leaders from each country signed an elaborate ceasefire deal with President Trump in attendance.
Why might you be wrong?
There is still tension, there is animosity. A ceasefire is a great step forward but not a guaranteed shots will not be fired and lives not lost.