I can’t go any lower so this is where I stay. Passage of time makes this very unlikely
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Relative Brier Score
15
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 13 | 226 | 228 | 1019 |
| Comments | 0 | 11 | 169 | 171 | 379 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 12 | 51 | 53 | 204 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 32 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Dec 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I’m not
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
This absolutely is not happening
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I’m not
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updated for passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As Russia continues to attack Ukraine during peace negotiations, this could happen so Ukraine has a deterrent
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(+2%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2027
98%
(-2%)
No
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
This is unlikely right now also because of the peace negotiations ongoing
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Peace negotiations could end with no resolution and that pushes Russia to attack NATO in a non-conventional way
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
While Egypt is facing a lot of problems around water and youth unemployment, economic collapse is super unlikely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A stable Egypt is really important for the region. IMF, gulf states, or others will aid before collapse happens. However, there’s still a chance that endemic corruption and high dissatisfaction among young people causes a collapse
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Same as before. There’s a slight chance but it’s not likely as relations between the two countries remain in a standstill
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NK could always attack, it’s always a possibility
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
For now it’s still zero, but I may raise the likelihood for the next iteration of this question given the military games China is putting on around taiwan
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The drills could mean imminent invasion, but I still don’t think so
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 30, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Same as before, this isn’t likely still with Gaza remaining a sticking point
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There are strong reasons based in self-interest for countries to normalize relations with Israel
Files
Why do you think you're right?
This is not happening at the federal level with Trump so all in on AI advancement
Why might you be wrong?
Trump is fickle and could change his mind but it’s super unlikely