Confirmed previous forecast
0.862998
Relative Brier Score
64
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 64 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Economic Debt,
Future Bowl,
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(0%)
Argentina
10%
(0%)
Bolivia
20%
(0%)
Ecuador
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
(+15%)
Argentina
10%
(-5%)
Bolivia
20%
(+9%)
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
For Argentina: - President Javier Milei recently took an emergency loan from the IMF, deepening the country’s debt exposure. (https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2025/03/10/javier-milei-argentina-imf-debt-trap-loan/)
For Ecuador: Bolivia hasn’t defaulted since the 1980s, and Fitch Ratings recently stated that default is “improbable” in 2025 (https://www.vision360.bo/noticias/2025/03/19/21824-bolivia-corre-el-riesgo-de-default-analistas-creen-que-se-cumplira-el-pago-de-la-deuda-externa-pero-habra-dificultades)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Amid growing speculation over a potential conflict between the United States and Iran, several Latin American economies (including those examined in this question) could face significant disruptions as a result of increased geopolitical volatility.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
100%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
General Min Aung Hlaing has announced that national elections in Myanmar, initially expected much earlier, are now likely to be postponed until December 2025 or possibly January 2026. The delay adds to ongoing concerns about the country’s political trajectory following the 2021 military coup. (https://www.vaticannews.va/es/mundo/news/2025-03/myanmar-el-desafio-de-las-elecciones-entre-la-guerra-civil-y-un.html)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Elections could potentially be held only in areas under military control, a scenario that would exclude a significant portion of the country’s native population
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Argentina
15%
(0%)
Bolivia
11%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
It’s more likely that the United States will be the first to achieve this level of AI training, given that many of the leading companies in the field are based there, along with the country’s strong drive to be at the forefront of such advancements.
Why might you be wrong?
Many of the research projects carried out by countries that are antagonistic to the United States—China, for example—are not made public, which means there’s a real possibility they could achieve this milestone first.