dockterx

Dr. Ecks
About:

Computer science dropout. Practicing physician. Pseudo intellectual dilettante. Breakfast aficionado.

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2025 Season Stats

-0.020618

Relative Brier Score

33

Forecasts

2

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 47 33 47
Comments 0 0 43 30 43
Questions Forecasted 0 0 16 13 16
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 12 2 12
 Definitions
New Prediction
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
dockterx made their 8th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 59
0% (-31%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
97% (+38%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
3% (-6%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
0% (-1%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?

Late to the party.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Better late than never.

Files
New Badge
dockterx earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
dockterx made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
0% (0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
32% (-15%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
62% (+9%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
6% (+6%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?

Perception is reality https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-is-escalating-russias-hybrid-war-against-europe-is-europe-ready/ and https://thedebrief.org/how-russias-cognitive-warfare-strategy-seeks-to-reshape-reality-and-undermine-the-west/

Files
New Prediction
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
dockterx made their 7th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (-3%)
Less than or equal to 59
31% (+19%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
59% (+27%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
9% (-28%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
1% (-15%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Catching up after several weeks off grid.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Pretty far behind on crowd margins now.
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Building on principles and reasoning from the ribosomes forecast. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Mitochondria alone are at least an order of magnitude more complex than ribosomes.

Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

@PeterStamp and @DimaKlenchin rationales plus a little dose of AI potential.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

The last 1% of the progress is often the hardest.

Files
New Badge
dockterx earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
dockterx made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Estonia
0% (0%)
Latvia
0% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Putin holds the best cards. Trump is only going to help if he gets a cut. Zelensky is getting desperate but not desperate enough.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe the latest drama isn't as bad as it seems.
Files
New Badge
dockterx earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

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