Confirmed previous forecast
-0.020618
Relative Brier Score
35
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 41 | 35 | 49 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 37 | 30 | 43 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Yes
88%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
0%
(-31%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
97%
(+38%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
3%
(-6%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Late to the party.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Better late than never.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
0%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
32%
(-15%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
62%
(+9%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
6%
(+6%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Less than or equal to 59
31%
(+19%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
59%
(+27%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
9%
(-28%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
1%
(-15%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Catching up after several weeks off grid.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Pretty far behind on crowd margins now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
Yes
88%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Building on principles and reasoning from the ribosomes forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Mitochondria alone are at least an order of magnitude more complex than ribosomes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
81%
Yes
19%
No
Why do you think you're right?
@PeterStamp and @DimaKlenchin rationales plus a little dose of AI potential.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The last 1% of the progress is often the hardest.
Files
