Hegseth
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
16
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 102 | 16 | 102 |
| Comments | 0 | 5 | 44 | 14 | 44 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - May 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
38%
(+36%)
Yes
May 31, 2025 to Nov 30, 2025
62%
(-36%)
No
May 31, 2025 to Nov 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Hegseth
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(-5%)
Yes
May 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026
97%
(+5%)
No
May 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
It's still possible given the potential for Israeli strikes, but the regime probably needs to consolidate and build at this point.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Strong political will for war with Israel following strikes on nuclear enrichment sites
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-43%)
Yes
May 27, 2025 to Nov 27, 2025
98%
(+43%)
No
May 27, 2025 to Nov 27, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
No major signals
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Hard to predict
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
100%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
5 days left. Unlikely to even chance to overtake MSFT imo.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Tariffs
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(+3%)
Yes
Apr 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
92%
(-3%)
No
Apr 1, 2025 to Apr 1, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Crowd.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities in the next 3 months.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Upping slightly from IAEA report.
Why might you be wrong?
Likely Israeli strikes do not develop into war.