RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 03:45PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	7%	+5%	+0%
No	88%	93%	-5%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:21AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	99%	+0%	+1%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:21AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:21AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	5%	6%	-1%	+0%
Armenia	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
Georgia	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:21AM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	0%	+0%	+0%
No	100%	Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026	Jan 4, 2026	100%	+0%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 03:01PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2027	Mar 9, 2026	5%	+10%	-1%
No	85%	Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2027	Mar 9, 2026	95%	-10%	+1%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 03:02PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 03:02PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Latvia	4%	2%	+2%	+0%
Lithuania	3%	3%	+0%	+0%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(17 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 03:02PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2025 03:20PM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	10%	-2%	+0%
No	92%	90%	+2%	+0%

geoffodlum

Geoff Odlum

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