Confirmed previous forecast
-0.056889
Relative Brier Score
266
Forecasts
42
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 55 | 266 | 266 | 266 |
| Comments | 2 | 15 | 114 | 114 | 114 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 28 | 39 | 39 | 39 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 4 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Definitions | |||||
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Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
100%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
0%
(0%)
30 days
0%
(0%)
31-60 days
0%
(0%)
61-90 days
0%
(0%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
1- Several countries in Europe have ordered or begun receiving PULS systems (Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, etc.), but none of these countries have made a formal public commitment to donate/give PULS systems to Ukraine by the end of 2025.
2- NATO official announcement: Germany has provided $500 million in funding under PURL; the packages will finance the purchase of equipment and ammunition from US stockpiles. The contents are not detailed.
3- Based on official statements about PURL (NATO/Germany (BMVg)/BAFA archives and related news), and official statements about PURL, no publicly available, official German/NATO/DSCA/DoD document has been found up to December 31, 2025, explicitly listing launchers such as the "M142 HIMARS" or "M270."
4- Ukrainian Presidency / Zelenskyy (September 30, 2025): PURL packages will contain “missiles for the Patriot and missiles/munitions for the HIMARS”—this refers to missiles/rockets, not launchers.
5- NATO official / Interfax report: PURL packages undergo SACEUR approval and “contents are not disclosed”—that is, the package contents are not detailed publicly. (The statement is from an anonymous source.)
https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2025/08/05/7524826/?utm
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/1093549.html
6- BAFA / Notes on German export regulations: There are extension and export mechanisms for GEAs, but these do not constitute a commitment to launchers. (BAFA GEAs update sources).
I've done a lot of research and read the valuable insights here. I've concluded that there's no concrete data to date.
Why might you be wrong?
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