henrytolchard

Henry Tolchard
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Analyst at Cultivate Labs

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? -0.02994
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) -0.000074
Mar 21, 2023 04:00PM UTC How much will On Running earn in net sales from shoes in Q4 2022? 0.263116
Mar 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022) -0.001078
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? -0.002272
Feb 02, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) -0.000172
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM UTC What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022? 0.017017
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022? -0.001345
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022) -0.000857
Nov 28, 2022 03:46PM UTC Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022? 0.155688
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022) -0.000997
Sep 26, 2022 04:00PM UTC Will the Brothers of Italy Party (FdI) win the most seats in the 2022 Italian general election? 0.022284
Jul 30, 2022 04:00AM UTC Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022? -0.025491
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022? 0.007179
Jul 06, 2022 03:59AM UTC What percentage of Arizona will be facing severe drought or worse on 5 July 2022? -0.000513
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? 0.001426
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