Time
0.026285
Relative Brier Score
25
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 26 | 25 | 258 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 85 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 38 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 56 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Argentina
3%
(-2%)
Bolivia
0%
(-1%)
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 3, 2025 05:06PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Jun 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
98%
(+1%)
No
Jun 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Recent talks
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Talks could go poorly
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
2%
(0%)
30 days
17%
(0%)
31-60 days
6%
(0%)
61-90 days
25%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think that the crowd is pretty accurate on this one. The only two notable things about 2025, as far as I can tell, are the relatively low storage levels and the possibility of an end to the way. In either case, I think that this would probably only lead to an import of 15b+ m^3 in Q4. I think that this is still very unlikely, and a lot of things would have to occur to make this happen.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The possibility of an end to the war is particularly troubling, since a peace deal might involve lifting sanctions / opening up of the energy trade
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 62%
0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
44%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
56%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
I find most of the buckets to be extremely unlikely, requiring unprecedented employment growth or a Global Financial Crisis-level crash. Between the two reasonable buckets, I am hedging toward a decline since we seem to have experienced a decent amount of growth recently.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump's tariffs, if applied in the most extreme scenario, could cause a large crash.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Argentina
5%
(-3%)
Bolivia
1%
(-2%)
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Time
Why might you be wrong?
Time