The Russian incursion into Ukraine has met minimal pushback from western allies. With little to lose, there is little to no incentive for ceding a Putin-personality driven incursion.
-0.000306
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Africa
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Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
If Russia expands the boundaries of its incursion to include eastern Europe activation of NATO Article Five may see Russia overmatched by a western coalition creating a rapidly petitioned ceasefire by Russia before 2026. Assessment assumes that Russia's resources are rapidly depleting and that their land, sea, and air logistics doctrine remains unchanged (disadvantaged).
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Why do you think you're right?
Commensurate with FOCAC and expanding economic investment on the African Continent and China's goal of achieving “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049" as well as an aspirational blue-water navy with power projection capability / logistic reach aligned with a potential annexation of Taiwan, China will continue to militarize the African Continent to protect their interests via the PLA/PLAN.
Why might you be wrong?
Economic constraints; International pressure; consolidation and/or expansion of the Djibouti facilities; Alternative strategies to achieve goals.