24th
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johnnycaffeine

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? 0.09186
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) -0.017752
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? 0.09349
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? -0.03988
Feb 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.017021
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.015239
Jan 04, 2022 01:19PM UTC How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? -0.153713
Jan 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? -0.000767
Jan 01, 2022 01:49PM UTC Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? -0.019839
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.024601
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? -0.18601
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021) -0.01231
Nov 18, 2021 12:12PM UTC When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? -0.009262
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) -0.000161
Nov 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2021 and Nov 17, 2021) -0.000103
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.0085
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.00637
Oct 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2021 and Oct 17, 2021) -0.0032
Oct 01, 2021 06:31PM UTC [Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China? -0.050826
Sep 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 17, 2021 and Sep 17, 2021) -0.014
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