I'm bolder with my new forecast as we approach the deadline. The NATO holdouts (Spain) seem set in their opposition and the political will to force them feels like it has past.
2.347733
Relative Brier Score
18
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-5%)
Yes
90%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A major military event (one close to home for the holdouts) could motivate a reversal of their current position.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-15%)
Yes
95%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I'm bolder in my "no" prediction for two reasons. There seems very little appetitite for policy-makers to address this topic at this time and there is a significant fear of an AI race that suggests that even if engagement were to happen, it would be to loosen restrictions.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A major AI system failure or event that causes public sentiment to change rapidly could bring new light on the risks of AI.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
15%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
35%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
30%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
15%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 2.3%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
70%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3.2%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(+50%)
Yes
25%
(-50%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Dry conditions and current fires are on track to add significantly to the current count.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Weather conditions in the western states could change and mitigate the rate of current fires.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
15%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Summer peaks are approximately this level, and with extensive uncertainty in energy prices and specific tariffs in oil and gas, this seems highly likely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Demand for transportation could decline (higher prices have this balancing feedback on demand normally, but even more severely, lower demand could come from economic uncertainty). Additionally, a slower US economy from fewer imports could lead to lower demand for fuel.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Gas prices have remained low through the summer.
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden shock could spike prices.