RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	1%	+4%	+0%
No	95%	99%	-4%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	1%	+0%	+1%
No	99%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	99%	+0%	-1%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	99%	-1%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026	Jan 1, 2026	99%	+0%	+1%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027	Mar 1, 2026	6%	-5%	+0%
No	99%	Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027	Mar 1, 2026	94%	+5%	+0%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	7%	3%	+4%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	90%	96%	-6%	+0%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	3%	2%	+1%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	3%	+7%	+0%
No	90%	97%	-7%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	5%	6%	-1%	+0%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	5%	3%	+2%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	1%	+0%	0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
21 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	0%

o-maverick

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