RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:45AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	15%	4%	+11%	+0%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations		Answer was correct

Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:45AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	21%	-1%	+0%
No	80%	79%	+1%	+0%

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:45AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	20%	-5%	-1%
No	85%	80%	+5%	+1%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:45AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
U.S. Entity	95%	79%	+16%	+2%
Non-U.S. Entity	70%	55%	+15%	+2%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:45AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
No	97%	98%	-1%	+0%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:45AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	11%	+9%	-2%
No	80%	89%	-9%	+2%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:45AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	7%	-6%	+0%
No	99%	93%	+6%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:45AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	17%	+3%	+0%
No	80%	83%	-3%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:45AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	70%	67%	+3%	-1%
30 days	15%	6%	+9%	+0%
31-60 days	3%	6%	-3%	+0%
61-90 days	5%	5%	+0%	+0%
91 days or more	7%	16%	-9%	+0%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 01:46AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

o-maverick

About: