olavo_sg

Confirmed previous forecast.

Direct confrontation events, as outlined in the resolution of the issue, seem historically rare, even though the tensions and fault lines have existed for decades.
Furthermore, as pointed out here, the fact that North Korea has sent troops to Ukraine might indicate that it is less inclined to escalate tensions on other fronts.This argument, however, could be reversed, suggesting that North Korea is emboldened by its alliance with Russia and thus more daring.
 Nevertheless, while the alliance has grown stronger, it also creates a greater need for coordination and approval from Russia regarding North Korea's actions. At this moment, I don’t believe Russia would approve such an action.

Passage of time. 

Passage of time. 

passage of time

Confirmed previous forecast. 

The only chances of this happening, in my view, would be: (i) in a scenario of total war with Iran and its rapid defeat; or (ii) in a scenario where Israel makes massive concessions to Iran in exchange for commitments in return. The first scenario is slightly more likely than the second, but still less than 1%.

Confirmed previous forecast.

There are no incentives; Iran is already violating the agreement, and nothing happens.

Moreover, only one month remains.

Confirmed previous forecast.