olavo_sg

Passage of time and  no news about it 

The only countries that could credibly claim to have developed AGI are the United States and China.

According to most definitions of AGI, I believe it is still very far from being achieved. As good as they are, LLMs still make many mistakes and are susceptible to manipulation.

Although China is a dictatorship with heavy propaganda, it does not seem likely that Chinese leadership would lie about having achieved AGI (1% chance). It is somewhat more plausible that Trump would do so (2% chance).

Another possibility is that an authority from one of the hundreds of existing countries might declare this in a moment of delusion (3% chance).

The guy won’t become democratic at 82.

Well, from a historical point of view, it does not take much for North Korea to launch a missile test. They are kind of always doing this, so, considering historical data, it's more likely they will do it again in the following weeks. 

It seems like Trump already has the control of Venezuela's oil , what seems enough, at least in this first moment.
Changing the president right now would cost political resources and energy and there are always a risk of civil war, counter coup etc. 

no time left 

latest data , no time left.. 

confirmed previous forecast