confirmed previous forecast
0.315319
Relative Brier Score
170
Forecasts
9
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 16 | 16 | 184 | 170 | 618 |
| Comments | 16 | 16 | 162 | 152 | 292 |
| Questions Forecasted | 16 | 16 | 78 | 72 | 193 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 47 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
44%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
44%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
8%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
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Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
--
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
10%
(0%)
30 days
0%
(0%)
31-60 days
0%
(0%)
61-90 days
0%
(0%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
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Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
59%
Yes
41%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It’s definitely a trend that is likely to be adopted in several countries. However, the requirement for detailed disclosures and the short time window make me more conservative in my estimate for the question.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
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Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-4%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
89%
(+4%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
4%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Why do you think you're right?
passage of time, following the crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
--
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
(0%)
Yes
63%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
--
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
71%
(+41%)
Less than $1 billion
20%
(-5%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
6%
(-19%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
2%
(-10%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
1%
(-7%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Why do you think you're right?
updating considering the data so far
Files
Why might you be wrong?
one big seed funding may impact strongly the data
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
It seems to me like a quite complex regulatory proposal.
Confirming previous forecast...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
--
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Why might you be wrong?
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