Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 12 | 128 | 128 | 128 |
| Comments | 0 | 4 | 76 | 76 | 76 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 11 | 38 | 38 | 38 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
3%
(-21%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
97%
(+27%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(-5%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting for end of year statistics
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Very unlikely, only a few days left in 2025.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
3%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
97%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-18%)
Yes
97%
(+18%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting down due to time, very few days left in 2025.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps the exec branch is bored
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
3%
(0%)
Latvia
3%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 26, 2025 to Jun 26, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 26, 2025 to Jun 26, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting down for time
Why might you be wrong?
Unlikely.