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siayinshen
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Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM UTC
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025)
-0.100381
Apr 28, 2025 01:00PM UTC
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
-0.141635
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
0.086633
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
-0.000764
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)
0.034266
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM UTC
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
-0.000014
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
-0.042686
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
-0.00011
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC
Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?
0.0
Apr 02, 2024 03:00PM UTC
Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?
-0.000048
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?
0.0
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 20, 2024 and Apr 1, 2024)
0.0
Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)
0.0
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