Forecasted Questions
How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(10 days from now)
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(10 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2025 03:56AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Nov 06, 2025 03:56AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 17 | 1% | 0% | +1% | -2% |
| 16 or fewer | 99% | 100% | -1% | +2% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 06, 2025 03:14PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Nov 06, 2025 03:14PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 1% | +9% | -6% |
| No | 90% | 99% | -9% | +6% |
Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 09, 2025 10:26PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Nov 09, 2025 10:26PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54% | 83% | -29% | +12% |
| No | 46% | 17% | +29% | -12% |
Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2025 03:50AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Nov 10, 2025 03:50AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 46% | 15% | +31% | -26% |
| No | 54% | 85% | -31% | +26% |