Going with the crowd and updated 3% towards under 30 days following Putin's announcement for the May 8th-11th. (This is my first forecast)
0.278002
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Africa
New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
67%
Less than 30 days
8%
30 days
7%
31-60 days
5%
61-90 days
13%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There have been many similar attempts and Ukraine wants an over 30 day period.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Russia has been deploying troops to gain resources, gain militarily strategic locations, secure UN votes and increase weapons and nuclear exports. Russia would be very interested in having a partner on the Atlantic, but they don’t have much use for Togo’s vote.
African countries have been taking on Russian troops to help with counter-terrorism and protecting against coups. Countries favor Russian security if there is strong anti-western sentiment or withdrawal of western security forces and UN forces wouldn’t be fast enough. The current security concerns do not seem very acute and Togo is at least not forced take on Russian troops.
An end to the war in Ukraine would make Russia more willing to send troops and Togo less hesitant to take them. An escalation of current conflicts threatening to Togo would make them more likely to need Russian troops.
Thanks to RUN_RWC for highlighting this ISW report. A highlight is the strengthening cooperation and reports of Russia accessing Togo’s port and the ISW report states that indicative precursors to sending Russian troops have happened.
Why might you be wrong?
Even if Togo and Russia finalize relating to the port, troops could enter Togo with a delay. There is four months left of 2025.