Confirmed previous forecast
-0.987292
Relative Brier Score
50
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 3 | 63 | 50 | 249 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 43 | 34 | 145 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 24 | 17 | 67 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 22 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
4%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
46%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
22%
(0%)
30 days
2%
(0%)
31-60 days
2%
(0%)
61-90 days
28%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Oracle - Bronze
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 3, 2025 06:50PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Oct 3, 2025 to Apr 3, 2026
80%
No
Oct 3, 2025 to Apr 3, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
im putting a fairly high probability on this one. im thinking the war w hamas is coming to an end and that to move forward this is going to have to happen.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
objective ignorance. who knows anything, right?
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Sep 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Aug 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
Why do you think you're right?
while the Ukrainians have made some gains, i dont see them as triggering a peace talks. however, but kudos to them. i do think the tide has turned.
Why might you be wrong?
objective uncertainty. who really knows anything? and there are long tail event outcomes, too. like putin dropping dead.