130th
Accuracy Rank

winkelby

About:
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0.394619

Relative Brier Score

56

Forecasts

5

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 7 63 56 191
Comments 0 3 33 31 104
Questions Forecasted 0 5 32 30 56
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 5 5 17
 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

this closes in a week so lowering forecast 3% is generous but im still fairly sure this is going to happen sooner than later. how much more can hamas take? how much more can the Palestinians take?

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Why might you be wrong?

who really knows anything. 

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New Prediction
winkelby
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13% (+8%)
Yes
Nov 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2025
87% (-8%)
No
Nov 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2025

a little confusion on time period. 12 months from this day. 

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New Prediction
winkelby
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Nov 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2025
95%
No
Nov 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
using base case of SS actuarial table (~10% chance of death for an 85 year old male per year less allowance for only 4 months left for this question at this point) + chance of revolution or war where he gets ousted (2% , as i guesstimate average lifespan of a dictatorship is ~50 years and ~1% that he is taken out my an israeli attack) = 13% / year or about 5% from today though the closing of this question. 
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Why might you be wrong?

who knows anything? his death has been reported a number of times in the last few years.

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New Prediction

im fairly sure this has already happened. vlad is getting his revenge on the west. 

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New Prediction
winkelby
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (0%)
Yes
Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025
90% (0%)
No
Nov 17, 2024 to May 17, 2025

confirming 10% - even woth irianian and saudi rapprochement in the air. 

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

lowering my forecast odds here.  wth a trump win there is very little biden can do 

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Why might you be wrong?

who really knows anything?

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New Badge
winkelby
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
winkelby
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
34% (+19%)
Yes
66% (-19%)
No

looks like the hyperscalers are still buying NVIDOA chips hand over fist.

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New Badge
winkelby
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Oct 2024

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

my gut is that the cap-ex build-out to ramp up "hyper-scalers" cloud computing centers will show signs of fatigue and slow down by then. the multi $100B spend on cloud infrastructure is unsustainable and unwise.  Further, there isn't much revenue coming in for their cloud AI offerings (MSFT's co-pilot is slow to gain traction) and on-board AI via smaller LLMs are in the ascendency.  As NVDIAs massive PE is built on continued growth, I see multiple contraction as their price comes back into orbit (though MSFT AMZN GOOG APPL are going to see a hit as well) and NVDIA should fall faster as AI is their main growth driver. 

While there are some great use cases in companies/govt/industries out there - I'm still waiting for the "Killer-App" that will drive mass adoption of AI . IE something that justifies all the infrastructure spend. 



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Why might you be wrong?

who knows anything? 

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