Obviously, if you look back at all forecasts, maintenance of status quo is the usual outcome. They have settled into a situation while not ideal it is preferable to the alternative.
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0
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If somethings acts as a transition piece, it might activate the situation again, and at that time I'll reassess.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
98%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The length of the FDA process and the everchanging composition of the FDA by Trump and his cronies make it difficult to gauge the process.
Also, it would be vulnerable to hacking, and the last thing people want is to be vulnerable to hacking their health.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The Trump admin could try to fast track the approval to try to prove a point and solidify their trust in AI, but I find this highly unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Estonia
1%
Latvia
2%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Based on its current involvement in other conflicts, I feel the time isn't ripe to stir up any more hornets nests.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I think if they are able to conclude their current conflict , they will transfer all their power to a conflict in one of these three areas thus keeping their liabilities in a constant state. The Russian government seems to be OK with a state of war and the drains that come with it so if Ukraine ends, I feel they would just change the focus.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I don't think the US Government will step into a knowledgable role in this realm, but would rather trust the players to control the system.
Why might you be wrong?
If the government decide to take a controlling role in this field even though they will not have the knowledge to do so.